Q: Should the economic forecast be an important factor in determining the type of business to start or acquire?

A: Most businesses that are acquired or started are done so with a long time horizon in mind. Add to that the fact of the typical continuous cycles of any economy: (downturn, bottom out, upturn, and peak). Given that long-term view and the necessary expectation of economic cycles that almost defy the ability to forecast the timing of those trends, it’s more important to pick an industry/market in which you have loads of experience and create a superior offering with a superior, sustainable business model (check out the Opportunity Analysis for help with that). Then the chances are significantly higher of your business performing well no matter what the economy does. Otherwise you are merely trying to “time” the economy, which most economists can’t even do properly.

Recommended Resources

Business Opportunity Analysis:

  • Opportunity IQ (web-based business opportunity analysis and improvement tool for the evaluation of startup ideas, business plans, new product launches, new growth opportunities, business improvement initiatives, acquisitions, and venture capital/private equity investments)

Document Downloads:

Ask an Expert:


  • Venture Academy (includes nearly 200 videos of entrepreneurship training)

About Wade Myers

Wade has founded or co-founded, invested in, and been a director of over 25 companies and has completed 55 financing and M&A transactions. His previous work experience includes the Boston Consulting Group and Mobil Corporation. Wade also served as an Airborne Ranger in the US Army where he was a decorated veteran of the Gulf War. He is a Baker Scholar graduate of Harvard’s MBA program and is married with five children.

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